Poles: Put Your Rosaries Away, Hop in the Sack, and Make Like Bunnies
UPDATE: Bear's "Modest Proposal" for "pastoral polygamy" in the comments to turn around our low TFRs (after all, Bear hears there are Catholic polygamists in Africa) is not new. It is called "an astonishingly good idea" in the clip suggested by reader "John Kennedy." Watch before or after this "astonishingly depressing" article for a little humor from one of the funniest movies of all time.
Is it time to drop the Catholic Baby Bomb? (Pastorally, of course, so it would be okay.)
Is it time to drop the Catholic Baby Bomb? (Pastorally, of course, so it would be okay.)
You may have heard of the big Polish Rosary Rally. Perhaps you were impressed, even inspired.
The Bear was not. Not one tiny bit. Do not make a grand gesture whining about immigration when your life choices make immigration inevitable. God is not impressed with hypocrisy, and foolishness is considered evil in the wisdom literature of the Bible.
Bear would be impressed by (and heartily recommends) that instead of rosaries, all able bodied married Poles have un-contracepted sex at least once per day and make new Poles. Save the rosaries until you have four Catholic kids per Polish couple.
Now that would make Mary happy.
Now that would make Mary happy.
It's a nice fantasy but the Poles are long past the point of no return. They are, in fact, extinct already. A dead population walking.
The Baby Wars is Satan versus the West. Satan hates you. He hates your babies. He loves it when you abort them. He loves it when you contracept them. When you make that choice not to be fruitful, you are, to this degree at least, pleasing Satan, who's motto is "the fewer humans the better."
But especially Christian humans.
By golly if the Church didn't have it right all along. Old Pope Paul VI came through with Humanae Vitae, the Church's last slap in the face to the Lord of the World. The modernists were just waiting to rip his lungs out and turned it into a dead "pastoral" letter.
Pope Paul VI never wrote another encyclical and the Church entered into its long détente with the World.
(Although, Pope Francis did come out with a curious little document called Amoris Laetitia. Guess what? For all the kvetching, he doesn't complain about overpopulation. Amoris Laetitia warns of the baby bust, right in Paragraph 42. Francis and the Bear agree on this.)
Is there a Catholic couple alive who has not been told by a priest "pastorally" that contraception is a personal choice for every couple?
One wonders what the Church will look like without the substrate of the West as the current flirtation with indifferentism and universalism results in a marriage with the World instead of just a bit of adultery.
Not the marriage feast Jesus had in mind, the Bear suspects.
Polish culture will one day exist only in museums - if the replacement population cares enough to put it on display. Chances are just as good that it will be erased in the victory celebrations, even as Confederate statues and monuments are being pulled down in our own country. It took awhile, but the final stage in any conquest is making sure the enemy is remembered only as a caricature of evil that was defeated by the heroic, indeed, perfect, victors with the purest motives.
In 1683, Jan Sobieski's Winged Hussar cavalry and other troops were part of the Holy Roman Empire's defeat of the Ottoman Turks at the gates of Vienna. The Bear doesn't like the chances for Sobieski's fame to be preserved by the replacement population in Poland.
Here's the math of doom, which is easy even for a Bear.
The Implacable Math of the Total Fertility Rate: How We Know Poles are Extinct
It takes a Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 to maintain a population in an industrialized country. In other words, each woman must have two children: one to replace mommy and one to replace daddy. A few women must have more, to make up for children that do not survive to contribute to population maintenance, hence the 2.1. That keeps the population at the same size.
On the other end, a TFR of 1.80 is considered the point of no return. No population has ever come back from a TFR less than that. Remember that number: 1.80. The Point of No Return.
Poland is already extinct with a shameful TFR of 1.31 (1.35 in 2015 where the rest of the figures come from).
That's lower than China's. One of the lowest in the world, down there with sack-slacker, impotent Greece, and Spain. A Bear cannot explain failure to breed, and can only guess.
Italy, Austria, Romania, Switzerland, and Germany are among the countries below the point of no return. Possible eunuchs; Bear cannot say.
France and Ireland are above the point of no return, but still below replacement rate. Their populations are shrinking, but they could turn it around.
But, on the whole, Europe is extinct, and with it, the West.
In 1994, East Germany posted the lowest TFR outside of China: 0.80. In 2015 Germany was 1.41. But still shrinking, and well below the 1.80 point of no return. In fact, there is not a single European country that is replacing its native population, and most are already extinct.
Russia? Extinct at 1.70.
The United States? Circling the drain at 1.88, kept from extinction only by immigrants as native Americans contracept and abort their future. Australia is the same, at 1.89. Canada is well below the point of no return at 1.59.
Total Fertility Rates and Immigration
But the news is even worse. The numbers posted would be lower still without immigrants, who tend to have more babies, at least for awhile. Without large imported Muslim populations European TFRs would be even more dismal. France may not be below the point of no return, but only because it is less French.
The Bear is not a Know Nothing. He is not against immigration. He is for Western culture. He is against importing populations that will not share Western values and are unwilling to assimilate in the great American tradition of the melting pot. America used to have the right formula. To take one example, look at Hollywood.
How Immigrant Jews Built Hollywood
Louis B. Meyer was a Russian Jewish immigrant who started as a junk man in the east. He, and other Russian or Eastern European Jewish immigrants with little formal education created a whole new industry from nothing. They built Hollywood and changed America practically overnight.
Louis B. served his mother's traditional Jewish soup recipe in MGM's cafeteria. Everyone loved it. But, other than that expression of ethnic pride, he considered himself just another American who did not celebrate "Jew Pride Month." As the joke went, "Hollywood is a place where Jews make pictures to sell Catholic theology to a Protestant audience."
And, there was some truth to it. Louis B. would not so much as allow a toilet to be shown in an MGM movie during the Golden Age. Indeed, the sight of one during dailies was enough to send him into one of his famous profane/sentimental tirades which often ended with a simulated heart attack. MGM was the undisputed elite studio, where the biggest stars were taught the distinctive "MGM walk," and the movies presented a bright, gleaming version of America.
Meyer never read a story, never read a script. He would have someone tell it to him. He was so attuned to the culture of his adopted country, he could almost unfailingly know what his fellow Americans would like and what they wouldn't.
And he was born a Jew in Russia, immigrated, found and sold junk, then, by one of those great, unexplainable movements in history, joined with similar immigrants to become one of the biggest success stories of all time.
A similar, if less spectacular tale, could be told of Red Death's people from Ireland. And a million other success stories.
Melting Pot or Salad Bowl?
The Bear is for the melting pot. He is against the salad bowl. If someone started Bear Pride Month, the Bear would track him down and rip his jawbone off. Bear does not want some pandering "celebration" of his Bearness. He's a damned Bear and knows it. He's a decorated veteran of the Kaiser's army who immigrated from Germany and is as American as pony pie now.
Will someone argue the cultural and religious identity of a Western nation is not worth protecting? That the world will be better when Sicily looks like a Tunisian colony? Bear visited Toulon and Marseilles in France when he was in the Navy. He loved them, right down to the "gut" in each. (Navy slang for the most disreputable and interesting quarter of a port city.) He visited the Algerian quarter without fear and ate couscous.
Someone recently told him he would no longer recognize them.
The Trade-Off: "A Taste of Armageddon" vs. The American Dream
This is the deal the West is making. It is willing to become less Western - less French, less Italian, less Swedish, less British, etc. in return for keeping the lights on and the trash picked up. In other words, to have a large enough population to sustain the mechanisms and institutions of a modern state, immigration is a drug Western countries do not have a choice but to take.
The Pope says it, not just the Bear. Natives of the West have decided careers, creature comforts, technology, vacations, same-sex marriages, abortion and contraception are more important than the challenge and expense of raising children. They will soon see the result. More immigrants will be needed. The cry of the muezzin will eventually silence "offensive" church bells. (Okay, the Pope didn't say that part.)
There will be continued terrorism. It is doubtful Shias and Sunnis will forget their differences just because they are on a different land mass. "Allahu Akbar" is already the soundtrack to the news like some alien dubstep we don't care for but are willing to put up with because the consequences of complaint are sharp. The odds of any single person being the victim of some Islamic extremist with a car, or a knife, or a gun or a bomb, or an airplane are very low.
The Vegas shooter is the exception that proves the rule: a more efficient Charles Whitman, who killed only 17 from the tower at the University of Texas.
The relatively small number of terrorist casualties are acceptable. We're all living out the original Star Trek episode, "A Taste of Armageddon," where citizens are randomly required to report for execution as the result of a simulated war between two planets.
Now, we're in a simulated peace between two civilizations that nonetheless produces casualties.
Call the Bear whatever names you want, xenophobic, racist, Nazi, sexist, whatever. He knows he's just a Bear and will always be a Bear no matter what names people call him. It beats getting shot at.
But how about this to stir the rhumba of rattlesnakes? Every couple who today is able to, but chooses not to, grow the native population by having three children or more is unwittingly signing off on an uncertain future. Oh, the Bear can sense the barometer drop and a chill upon a freshening breeze from the west. He feels a storm of abuse and defensiveness coming.
Meh. He'll weather it in his cave.
And, "native" means anyone born here who is willing to buy into the freaking American narrative, and not try to impose a different narrative. It means black, brown, Muslim or whoever, as long as they're willing to accept the risks and reap the rewards of that old-fashioned narrative we all know, even if, like all institutional narratives without exception, there's a lot of B.S. in it.
Bear admits the problem was not apparent until now, so boomers perhaps bear less responsibility.
The Millennial Abyss
But the boomer baby bust set the example for the Millennials. That generation is truly staring into the abyss.
A study of Colorado births revealed that between 2000 and 2015, birth rates in the 20-24 age range dropped 39%; 25-29 dropped 19%. (Source: Colorado Official State Web Page. ) It cites MTV's "Pregnant at 16" as one probable factor.
The Bear does understand that times are weird and tough for his kids. But it has seldom been easy to raise a big family .Kids are not useful, as in the days when they were extra hands on the family farm. They represent many sacrifices.
The Bear and Red Death had four of them, and had to be pretty darned scrappy to make it work. Bear made a name for himself as a lawyer, but not much money.
It was the most rewarding thing we ever did in 41 years of marriage. All the vacations we only heard about from friends, the little apartments we squeezed ourselves into, the ancient minivan, settling for less in career and just about everything except love - all that is forgotten. Our kids, though... they remain a daily joy.
Maybe Bear is wrong and a massive infusion of Islamic certainty will be a tonic for a culturally weary West ravaged by WWI. Maybe all the illegal Hispanic labor everyone knows our country depends on and cannot afford to stop will trigger a new Great Awaking as they help charismatic Protestant sects renew the religious landscape.
(No matter what, the future looks dim for black people, but no one has ever really given a damn about them anyway.)
The Future Belongs to the Southern Hemisphere and Islam (and Bears)
Are there any success stories? The Muslim TFR worldwide is 3.1, i.e. growing nicely. Sub-Saharan African countries have very healthy TFRs. Niger leads the world with an incredible TFR of 7.57. Most priests will soon be imports from Africa and the American Church might very well be better for it. We are already seeing the shift in our parish.
And yet many of the rich Gulf states are not at replacement level, either. Iran is extinct at 1.69. United Arab Emirates and Lebanon are also well below the point of no return. So some Muslim countries have joined the baby bust. And once they come to western countries, Muslim TFRs tend to settle around the TFR of their host country.
The story in a nutshell: the future belongs to the Southern hemisphere and Islam, and the West is extinct. Immigration is not an option, but necessary to keep the lights on. And it all happened because you all stopped fruitfully mating as God intended for both man and Bear.
There is, a long ways off, a happy ending, though. The Bear looks forward to the day humans are in parks and zoos. You're just such darned adorable clowns when you don't have a gun in your hands.