Friday, May 18, 2018

It’s Official: U.S. Population Extinct


UPDATE: This gives a general idea of Total Fertility Rates. South vs. North.

How does it feel to be a dinosaur?
And you yawned through the Bear’s demographic articles. Turns out he was right all along.

Our anti-family culture was as deadly and unavoidable as a Kansas-size asteroid. Western economic penalties an the stigma attached to large families contributed and birth control was the means, but Bear blames Catholics. At least they knew better. Not only did they contracept at the same rate as everyone else, but even the best of them worried more about pop singers at the Vatican.

Next to extinction of the West, a lot of things seem kind of trivial, but at least we were distracted while it happened.

The math is simple enough even a Bear can do it. Any species requires two offspring who survive to breed in order not to shrink and eventually go extinct. (One to replace mom and one to replace dad.) In modern Western countries with very low infant mortality rates, that’s a “Total Fertility Rate” of 2.1.

No population is known to have recovered once its TFR dropped below 1.80 - the demographic Point of No Return. Europe is already well below that and the U.S. was circling the drain, but now it’s official: it’s a Dead Population Walking.

If all this isn’t clear, the Bear is saying it’s all over but the shouting, you had a good run, and (with apologies to T.S. Eliot) you banged without the resulting whimper of babies. You will soon notice real world consequences. “Immigration” is not an “issue” any more than “electricity” is. Both are required to keep the lights on, as babyless Europe learned.

Demographics is destiny and you, gentle reader, are destined to extinction.


  1. Thanks Bear. Perhaps weirdly there is something delightful to contemplate that finally it's all going to be over, probably in less than 100 years. And to think we can wasting money looking for another planet to settle on. Absurd. What began with a bang is going out with a whimper.

    1. Bear knows some Catholic readers who can’t be blamed, but the sad fact is contraception was “pastorally” and academically accepted by the Church at large.

  2. Yes, we shall reap what we have sown. Those of us who already are in the latter days of our earthly existence likely will be spared the trauma, barring some “TEOTWAWKI” event, but many who are alive today may see it. I wonder what it will be like?

  3. The numbers are perhaps inflated. Owl doubts that they take into account singles of a young age who are specifically choosing and going out of their way not to ever have kids.

    If one looks at an average dating site, one of the dominant personal attributes to declare, and sort users by, is the "desire to have kids". If one did a study, one would find that the number of youth who are pre-screening themselves and trying to find matches that specifically do not want kids is quite high.

    The good news, when we look at these numbers, is that the fertility rate is an average. Fertility rate will not go to zero and one will see it reverse and start to climb well before zero. There is a tipping point where the amount of couples that are producing babies will be greater than those who are not.

    Owl would like the numbers rerun and the following statistic produced:
    1. % of population, over time, that is self-selecting not to reproduce (cannot reproduce is not counted).
    2. % of population, over time, that at the end of their childbearing years had 1, 2, or 3, children, each graphed.
    4. Fertility rate where 4 or more children are not part of the data set.

    Owl believes that these graphs would be much more dire.

    1. It is not as though human beings are really going to go extinct, and what those experts mean by “no population has ever recovered” when a Western society is the subject is not clear. One might observe that Muslim countries have high TRFs, and, on the whole, that’s true, but it would be more accurate to say that Southern Hemisphere countries have high TFRs and those in the north have low ones. Further complicating things is that any group that immigrates to low TFR northern countries tends to settle into the same TFR as the natives.

      I have been surprised on the Bear’s Facebook page at the knee-jerk reaction that I’m trying to make some pro-immigration point. I’m not. But if there were not priests brought in from Africa and Central America, even more churches would have to close their doors in my own diocese. I suspect the baby bust will impact different sectors to different degrees. European countries with early retirement and a large percent of their GNP stuck into social welfare and pensions are probably more dependent on immigrants than we are.

      I do think the trend will eventual cause noticeable changes. We could run this country with a smaller workforce, but the question is would we?

      Since the biggest families among Catholics are among the more traditional, one might think that would make a difference someday, but I just don’t think there is enough of a reliable “culture of family” anywhere to predict some sort of hegemony of the philoprogenitive.

      I’m not sure what % of dating site seekers are looking for non-child-wanters. I think many young men are frustrated with the difficulty of finding women interested in having a family. (And probably many young women likewise.) There seems to be a disconnect between similarly oriented men and women to which I don’t have a solution.

  4. In my Trad (FSSP) parish, we're doing our part. Six to eight children is not at all unusual, and 10-12 isn't either.

    1. Very good news. Thanks. This is how Traditional Catholic will become dominant in the Church.


Moderation is On.

Featured Post

Judging Angels Chapter 1 Read by Author

Quick commercial for free, no-strings-attached gift of a professionally produced audio book of Judging Angels, Chapter 1: Last Things, read...