Monday, March 24, 2014

Today's 777 Update: Malaysia "Case Closed"

UPDATE: NEW THEORY. Various sightings, pings and satellite imagery have put the airplane at wildly different places. Malaysia was not forthcoming about its radar data at first, causing resources to be wasted off the coast of Viet Nam. (Remember when that's where the airplane was?) Everybody seems to have forgotten how squirrelly Malaysia has been throughout. Why?

911 Scenario

What if the pilot was active in opposition politics? (He was.) What if he got a mysterious phone call from a throw-away phone, the kind terrorists use, right before takeoff? (He did.) What if the airplane turned and dropped off tracking in the gap between Malaysian controllers and Vietnamese controllers? (It did.) What if Malaysian military radar saw this? (It did.)

The Petronas Towers are twin towers, the tallest in the world before 2010. They dominate Kuala Lumpur, the origin of the airplane and capital of Malaysia. This is the big what if. What if Malaysia sent up fighter jets to investigate the suspicious activities of the 777?

What if the Malaysian government ordered a shootdown?

Might they try to pretend they didn't track the airplane at first? (They did.) Might they divert attention from a backtrack course by encouraging searches in Vietnamese waters when they knew otherwise? (They did.) Might they try to avoid taking responsibility for shooting down a 777 for, oh, a million reasons?

Now, they say the 777 splashed down in the Indian Ocean and are trying to wrap up the story with no wreckage found. Watch for a wooden pallet or some small items to be "found." Of course, this depends on all the different pings, etc. to be spurious.

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Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has announced the satellite data confirms Flight 370 crashed into the Indian Ocean southwest of Australia. The announcement seems odd, given that no wreckage has been recovered. Almost like Malaysia is desperate to bring this story to an end. More about that in a moment.

For this to be true, the only scenario that makes sense is a decompression (or other catastrophe) that left the airplane intact and flying on autopilot with all the people on board dead.

In 2005, a Helios 737 lost pressure due to wrong configuration of the pressurization controls. A warning went off, but the crew thought it was a different kind of warning and ignored it. As the plane continued to climb, everyone aboard lost consciousness due to lack of oxygen. With one exception.

The bursar managed to hook himself up to portable oxygen and entered the flight deck. Greek Air Force F-16s saw him active up front, but he lacked the knowledge to fly the airplane. The 737 exhausted its fuel, the engines flamed out, and it crashed in Greece.

The problem with this scenario is that any time there has been a fire, or, in the Helios Flight 522 crash, pilots have alerted controllers. Here, the unscheduled turn occurred 12 minutes before a routine "good night" from the copilot. The transponder was disabled. And -- most importantly -- the so-called "ghost plane" decompression theory doesn't work below 10,000 feet. That's the first thing pilots do in a decompression is rapidly descend to 10,000 feet. Actually, Flight 370 was reportedly at 5000 feet, where it's even easier to breathe.

Nothing about this says "accident." Airline crashes are almost always an unusual sequence of events that overwhelm a pilot's ability to cope or the structural integrity of the airplane. Here, all we see is human intervention, either that or an incredible collection of coincidences.

We know next to nothing about this satellite data. It only makes sense in the "ghost plane" scenario, with which the Bear is not impressed. I can understand why the Malaysian government might want "closure," (and to clear its civil aviation) but the Bear must be doubting Thomas on this one, until he sees the recovered wreckage of a 777.

2 comments:

  1. I think Malaysia is a loosy-goosy nation not used to having to answer to the public. They've fumbled this from the first moment. I have absolutely no idea as to what is true. I do think the plane met with a sudden trauma, likely a hijacking. It could have ended in the water as much as it may be hidden in a middle eastern desert. Why don't our satellites track that?

    It could have been shot down by Putin to distract the world and its many military assets...but of course there is plenty of instinctive reason to suspect muslim pilots of their own agenda.

    We'll never know. I am sorry for the suffering families. May their loved ones rest in peace.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think we'll eventually find the airplane, if only because we always do. But, on the other hand, there's never been an airplane go missing like this before. I don't know which is harder on families: the sudden loss of loved ones, or the agony of hope a crash has been confirmed. Having a son who has flown and will fly from the far east on 777s has made me wonder. I do hope we find out soon. If this latest Australian data is correct, we should eventually find an airplane. Why it ended up there is another question.

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