Monday, October 9, 2017

You're Officially Extinct, but Immigrants Will Replace You




Poles: Put Your Rosaries Away, Hop in the Sack, and Make Like Bunnies

UPDATE: Bear's "Modest Proposal" for "pastoral polygamy" in the comments to turn around our low TFRs (after all, Bear hears there are Catholic polygamists in Africa) is not new. It is called "an astonishingly good idea" in the clip suggested by reader "John Kennedy." Watch before or after this "astonishingly depressing" article for a little humor from one of the funniest movies of all time.

Is it time to drop the Catholic Baby Bomb? (Pastorally, of course, so it would be okay.)




You may have heard of the big Polish Rosary Rally. Perhaps you were impressed, even inspired.

The Bear was not. Not one tiny bit. Do not make a grand gesture whining about immigration when your life choices make immigration inevitable. God is not impressed with hypocrisy, and foolishness is considered evil in the wisdom literature of the Bible.

Bear would be impressed by (and heartily recommends) that instead of rosaries, all able bodied married Poles have un-contracepted sex at least once per day and make new Poles. Save the rosaries until you have four Catholic kids per Polish couple.

Now that would make Mary happy.

It's a nice fantasy but the Poles are long past the point of no return. They are, in fact, extinct already. A dead population walking.

The Baby Wars is Satan versus the West. Satan hates you. He hates your babies. He loves it when you abort them. He loves it when you contracept them. When you make that choice not to be fruitful, you are, to this degree at least, pleasing Satan, who's motto is "the fewer humans the better."

But especially Christian humans.

By golly if the Church didn't have it right all along. Old Pope Paul VI  came through with Humanae Vitae, the Church's last slap in the face to the Lord of the World. The modernists were just waiting to rip his lungs out and turned it into a dead "pastoral" letter.

Pope Paul VI never wrote another encyclical and the Church entered into its long dΓ©tente with the World.

(Although, Pope Francis did come out with a curious little document called Amoris Laetitia. Guess what? For all the kvetching, he doesn't complain about overpopulation. Amoris Laetitia warns of the baby bust, right in Paragraph 42. Francis and the Bear agree on this.)

Is there a Catholic couple alive who has not been told by a priest "pastorally" that contraception is a personal choice for every couple?

One wonders what the Church will look like without the substrate of the West as the current flirtation with indifferentism and universalism results in a marriage with the World instead of just a bit of adultery.

Not the marriage feast Jesus had in mind, the Bear suspects.

Polish culture will one day exist only in museums - if the replacement population cares enough to put it on display. Chances are just as good that it will be erased in the victory celebrations, even as Confederate statues and monuments are being pulled down in our own country. It took awhile, but the final stage in any conquest is making sure the enemy is remembered only as a caricature of evil that was defeated by the heroic, indeed, perfect, victors with the purest motives.

In 1683, Jan Sobieski's Winged Hussar cavalry and other troops were part of the Holy Roman Empire's defeat of the Ottoman Turks at the gates of Vienna. The Bear doesn't like the chances for Sobieski's fame to be preserved by the replacement population in Poland. 

Here's the math of doom, which is easy even for a Bear.

The Implacable Math of the Total Fertility Rate: How We Know Poles are Extinct

It takes a Total Fertility Rate of  2.1 to maintain a population in an industrialized country. In other words, each woman must have two children: one to replace mommy and one to replace daddy. A few women must have more, to make up for children that do not survive to contribute to population maintenance, hence the 2.1. That keeps the population at the same size.

On the other end, a TFR of 1.80 is considered the point of no return. No population has ever come back from a TFR less than that. Remember that number: 1.80. The Point of No Return.

Poland is already extinct with a shameful TFR of 1.31 (1.35 in 2015 where the rest of the figures come from).

That's lower than China's. One of the lowest in the world, down there with sack-slacker, impotent Greece, and Spain. A Bear cannot explain failure to breed, and can only guess.

Italy, Austria, Romania, Switzerland, and Germany are among the countries below the point of no return. Possible eunuchs; Bear cannot say.

France and Ireland are above the point of no return, but still below replacement rate. Their populations are shrinking, but they could turn it around.

But, on the whole, Europe is extinct, and with it, the West. 

In 1994, East Germany posted the lowest TFR outside of China: 0.80. In 2015 Germany was 1.41. But still shrinking, and well below the 1.80 point of no return. In fact, there is not a single European country  that is replacing its native population, and most are already extinct.

Russia? Extinct at 1.70.

The United States? Circling the drain at 1.88, kept from extinction only by immigrants as native Americans contracept and abort their future. Australia is the same, at 1.89. Canada is well below the point of no return at 1.59.

Total Fertility Rates and Immigration

But the news is even worse. The numbers posted would be lower still without immigrants, who tend to have more babies, at least for awhile. Without large imported Muslim populations European TFRs would be even more dismal. France may not be below the point of no return, but only because it is less French.

The Bear is not a Know Nothing. He is not against immigration. He is for Western culture. He is against importing populations that will not share Western values and are unwilling to assimilate in the great American tradition of the melting pot. America used to have the right formula. To take one example, look at Hollywood.

How Immigrant Jews Built Hollywood

Louis B. Meyer was a Russian Jewish immigrant who started as a junk man in the east. He, and other Russian or Eastern European Jewish immigrants with little formal education created a whole new industry from nothing. They built Hollywood and changed America practically overnight. 

Louis B. served his mother's traditional Jewish soup recipe in MGM's cafeteria. Everyone loved it. But, other than that expression of ethnic pride, he considered himself just another American who did not celebrate "Jew Pride Month." As the joke went, "Hollywood is a place where Jews make pictures  to sell Catholic theology to a Protestant audience." 

And, there was some truth to it. Louis B. would not so much as allow a toilet to be shown in an MGM movie during the Golden Age. Indeed, the sight of one during dailies was enough to send him into one of his famous profane/sentimental tirades which often ended with a simulated heart attack. MGM was the undisputed elite studio, where the biggest stars were taught the distinctive "MGM walk," and the movies presented a bright, gleaming version of America. 

Meyer never read a story, never read a script. He would have someone tell it to him. He was so attuned to the culture of his adopted country, he could almost unfailingly know what his fellow Americans would like and what they wouldn't.

And he was born a Jew in Russia, immigrated, found and sold junk, then, by one of those great, unexplainable movements in history, joined with similar immigrants to become one of the biggest success stories of all time.

A similar, if less spectacular tale, could be told of Red Death's people from Ireland. And a million other success stories.

Melting Pot or Salad Bowl?

The Bear is for the melting pot. He is against the salad bowl. If someone started Bear Pride Month, the Bear would track him down and rip his jawbone off. Bear does not want some pandering "celebration" of his Bearness. He's a damned Bear and knows it. He's a decorated veteran of the Kaiser's army who immigrated from Germany and is as American as pony pie now. 

Will someone argue the cultural and religious identity of a Western nation is not worth protecting? That the world will be better when Sicily looks like a Tunisian colony? Bear visited Toulon and Marseilles in France when he was in the Navy. He loved them, right down to the "gut" in each. (Navy slang for the most disreputable and interesting quarter of a port city.) He visited the Algerian quarter without fear and ate couscous. 

Someone recently told him he would no longer recognize them.

The Trade-Off: "A Taste of Armageddon" vs. The American Dream

This is the deal the West is making. It is willing to become less Western - less French, less Italian, less Swedish, less British, etc. in return for keeping the lights on and the trash picked up. In other words, to have a large enough population to sustain the mechanisms and institutions of a modern state, immigration is a drug Western countries do not have a choice but to take.

The Pope says it, not just the Bear. Natives of the West have decided careers, creature comforts, technology, vacations, same-sex marriages, abortion and contraception are more important than the challenge and expense of raising children. They will soon see the result. More immigrants will be needed. The cry of the muezzin will eventually silence "offensive" church bells. (Okay, the Pope didn't say that part.)

There will be continued terrorism. It is doubtful Shias and Sunnis will forget their differences just because they are on a different land mass. "Allahu Akbar" is already the soundtrack to the news like some alien dubstep we don't care for but are willing to put up with because the consequences of complaint are sharp. The odds of any single person being the victim of some Islamic extremist with a car, or a knife, or a gun or a bomb, or an airplane are very low.

al'Hamdu'llah.

The Vegas shooter is the exception that proves the rule: a more efficient Charles Whitman, who killed only 17 from the tower at the University of Texas.

The relatively small number of terrorist casualties are acceptable. We're all living out the original Star Trek episode, "A Taste of Armageddon," where citizens are randomly required to report for execution as the result of a simulated war between two planets. 

Now, we're in a simulated peace between two civilizations that nonetheless produces casualties.

Call the Bear whatever names you want, xenophobic, racist, Nazi, sexist, whatever. He knows he's just a Bear and will always be a Bear no matter what names people call him. It beats getting shot at.

But how about this to stir the rhumba of rattlesnakes? Every couple who today is able to, but chooses not to, grow the native population by having three children or more is unwittingly signing off on an uncertain future. Oh, the Bear can sense the barometer drop and a chill upon a freshening breeze from the west. He feels a storm of abuse and defensiveness coming.

Meh. He'll weather it in his cave.

And, "native" means anyone born here who is willing to buy into the freaking American narrative, and not try to impose a different narrative. It means black, brown, Muslim or whoever, as long as they're willing to accept the risks and reap the rewards of that old-fashioned narrative we all know, even if, like all institutional narratives without exception, there's a lot of B.S. in it.

Bear admits the problem was not apparent until now, so boomers perhaps bear less responsibility.

The Millennial Abyss

But the boomer baby bust set the example for the Millennials. That generation is truly staring into the abyss.

A study of Colorado births revealed that between 2000 and 2015, birth rates in the 20-24 age range dropped 39%; 25-29 dropped 19%. (Source: Colorado Official State Web Page. ) It cites MTV's "Pregnant at 16" as one probable factor.

The Bear does understand that times are weird and tough for his kids. But it has seldom been easy to raise a big family .Kids are not useful, as in the days when they were extra hands on the family farm. They represent many sacrifices.

The Bear and Red Death had four of them, and had to be pretty darned scrappy to make it work. Bear made a name for himself as a lawyer, but not much money.

It was the most rewarding thing we ever did in 41 years of marriage. All the vacations we only heard about from friends, the little apartments we squeezed ourselves into, the ancient minivan, settling for less in career and just about everything except love - all that is forgotten. Our kids, though... they remain a daily joy.

Maybe Bear is wrong and a massive infusion of Islamic certainty will be a tonic for a culturally weary West ravaged by WWI. Maybe all the illegal Hispanic labor everyone knows our country depends on and cannot afford to stop will trigger a new Great Awaking as they help charismatic Protestant sects renew the religious landscape.

(No matter what, the future looks dim for black people, but no one has ever really given a damn about them anyway.)

The Future Belongs to the Southern Hemisphere and Islam (and Bears)

Are there any success stories? The Muslim TFR worldwide is 3.1, i.e. growing nicely. Sub-Saharan African countries have very healthy TFRs. Niger leads the world with an incredible TFR of 7.57. Most priests will soon be imports from Africa and the American Church might very well be better for it. We are already seeing the shift in our parish.

And yet many of the rich Gulf states are not at replacement level, either. Iran is extinct at 1.69. United Arab Emirates and Lebanon are also well below the point of no return. So some Muslim countries have joined the baby bust. And once they come to western countries, Muslim TFRs tend to settle around the TFR of their host country. 

The story in a nutshell: the future belongs to the Southern hemisphere and Islam, and the West is extinct. Immigration is not an option, but necessary to keep the lights on. And it all happened because you all stopped fruitfully mating as God intended for both man and Bear.

There is, a long ways off, a happy ending, though. The Bear looks forward to the day humans are in parks and zoos. You're just such darned adorable clowns when you don't have a gun in your hands.

47 comments:

  1. I did my duty with two sons and two daughters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Bear, aware of, but ignoring one unsavory precedent,

      Stand to Orders! The Bear hereby awards you the Woodlands' "Baby Wars" campaign medal, and "Philoprogenitive Hero, Second Class," medal. Mom gets the "Silver Pomegranate" fertility pin.

      Also, excellent choice of mix! Very clever of you and your wife.

      Delete
    2. As the Cowardly Lion once said, "Aw shucks folks. I'm speechless."

      My good lady wife also appreciated the award!

      Delete
  2. Owl's Peer Group (for statistical purposes). Moderate to Good Christians All.

    Late 20's
    Female single no kids
    Female single no kids
    Male single no kids
    Male divorced 1 kid

    30's
    Female single no kids
    Female single no kids
    Male single no kids
    Couple 1 kid unlikely additional

    Late 30's
    Female single no kids
    Female single no kids
    Female single no kids
    Female single no kids
    Male divorced no kids
    Male priest
    Couple 1 kid planning for no additional kids
    Couple no kids yet
    Couple 5 kids

    40's
    Couple 5 kids
    Couple 5 kids
    Male single no kids
    Male single no kids

    ReplyDelete
  3. Google and Microsoft Edge are having fun eating Bear's comments.

    Summary: It's tough for 20-30 guys to find decent prospect. It is a puzzle Bear knows he would have difficulty solving. Bear and Red Death met in high school and married early. People tend to put off marriage now, which has disastrous effects on the TFR.

    Anyone with daughters or granddaughters pining for handsome, strapping, hard-identity Catholic veterans (since no one in Bear's family bother's to read this, getting all the Bear and more they want anyway)... Further Bear saith not but a wink is as good as a nod, eh?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, BTW, Bear's twins are half-Bear, but Bear assumes petty prejudice is not an obstacle to a good match. At least their mates will never have to worry about their personal safety!

      Delete
    2. Only Number 1 Son is of marrying age at 24. Number 2 is only 16.

      We could get together over a game of Battletech and discuss the dowery.

      Delete
    3. Unfortunately, we cannot help each other since I successfully saw my daughter married off. If you have a free one or two of those around, the Bear's wealth is counted in his goats.

      Delete
  4. Owl cannot say much more than Great Bear. Owl can only give anecdotal thoughts.

    There is a certain age range (unsure exactly where it is) above which a Woodland Creature, especially if married, would be clueless as to how difficult it is for human to find a spouse for the expressed purpose of raising a family. Babies, as the reason of marriage, has not been taught, or modeled to humans currently in their baby making prime. Babies, at best are an optional aspect of marriage.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, indeed. Oh, how indeed knoweth the Bear and his own mate. He is tempted to call his children SLACKERS, but there's still time for grandcubs. He knows it is frustrating for late 20s to find a suitable female. So, even elderly folk like the Bear do understand that times are weird and very different than when he was a'courting. You married your prom date and did right by each other and, behold, you could have a loving and successful Catholic marriage.

      Delete
    2. Not just males, Great Bear. Females have a wicked time as well. A religious male/female looking for a spouse late 20's and on....good luck with that!

      Delete
    3. So, like, what the heck? Bear sees Catholic gentleman unable to find mates, hears of Catholic females unable to find mates... There used to be a dating site (no kidding) that had some unintentionally funny entries called "Sedevacantist Singles." Bear still remembers the guy who was seeking a wife "just like the Blessed Mother." Some of the females, were the Bear younger, unmarried, and sedevacantist, admittedly a lot of "ifs" he could see himself snarfing up. Bear understands it is defunct.

      Perhaps there is a place of a very discrete "Bear Match Service" although he can imagine the kind of "bears" it would be flooded with, alas.

      Delete
    4. Like Owl has said, marriage isn't taught or modeled to people under a certain age anymore. Owl didn't mean just secularists.

      Owl has two Theo degrees. Long ago at college, there were a few good Christian women working on their M.R.S. degrees but mostly, especially the men in the Theo department had good cases of "vocation paralysis". There is such a stress on "need more priests" and "everyone has a vocation" that a lot of good earnest young people will sit around trying to divine God's will for their personal destiny, instead of realizing that God has largely spoken already and all they need to do is do. (Owl points out that the angst over / the quest for personal identity and fulfillment, or now days personal activism, is largely due to not teaching morality at all and instead teaching social justice). They then leave college and enter the secular workforce where it becomes increasingly hard to find a mate as one ages.

      In terms of Owl's female peers, especially the ones in their mid 30,

      Delete
    5. Also, HA! but they already made that "Bear Match Service" a video game. It is quite the nitch hit among the teens.

      Delete
  5. Perhaps Bear should finance a trip to Poland. Polish girls should swarm over manly men who have "TFR 7.0" written all over them, since evidently there is some odd problem with Polish guys.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Catholic polygamy. Extreme measure for desperate times. Since serial polygamy is already all but official, why not take the next step and drop the Catholic Baby Bomb?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your description reminds me of the ending scenes of Dr. Strangelove. https://youtu.be/mzddAYYDZkk

      Delete
    2. Woodland Creatures, we've got a Baby Gap with the Soviets!

      Delete
  7. Replies
    1. Only "very?" Must be slacking off.

      Delete
    2. No, I insist on claiming this comment! But how did he miss "pedantic," another obnoxious Bear trademark?

      Delete
    3. gentlemen, you can't fight here. this is the war room!

      Delete
  8. This was all an orchestrated effort to destroy the Christian West and its most important aspect: the traditional, Catholic family. You can even trace its roots back to the Freemasonry movement in Germany, just prior to the French Revolution. Hollywood, pornography, feminism, abortion, the pill, contraception...it all adds up. People are easier to manipulate and control when their passion is separated from reason. Those in power know this, but why? Greed, power, lust... but really at the root of it all they are anti-Logos. It really goes back to the foot of the Cross. Face it, we are no longer a Christian nation folks, they rule us now. The scary part is that they have become so powerful, that we now have a "pope" who slyly ridicules traditional Catholics who "breed like rabbits", yet encourages the Muslim invasion of Europe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The "rabbits" comment, although I had a great deal of fun with it, in context, I think, was more directed at the woman's health (however ignorantly) than a comment on Catholic philoprogenitiveness per se. And, in his actual encyclical, AL #42, he does specifically condemn the selfishness behind the baby bust.

      Delete
    2. Amoris Laetitia is nothing but one huge snow job, meant to obfuscate and provide cover the Modernists' real intentions (much like many of the Vat II docs). Surely even the Bear could sniff this one out. Bergoglio has shown nothing but contempt for Catholics who take their faith seriously, so why wouldn't the breeding comment expose how he really feels? The man is an enemy to the faith, even recently stating he is disturbed by Europeans who want to maintain their culture and religious identity, in the face of the Muslim invasion of the West. This guy is in bed with the Zionists and Freemasons (aka St. Gallens mafia), that's who got him elected. He's one of them. Anti-pope.

      Delete
    3. "Surely even the Bear could sniff this one out?" Bears have noses far better than dogs. Better than humans, it goes without saying. It's right there in black and white. We can use the sensible bits just as others might pick out a dodgy footnote. It has not been the job of the Bear to "invade the province of the jury." Think what you wish about the pope. All stripe of opinion is welcome, and even Protestants.

      Bear has a lawyer's faith (however strained) that when the dust settles, the truth will be revealed. Paragraph 42 is a gift. Why would we not rub their noses in it?

      Delete
    4. Because it just emboldens his defenders, whether they are liberal progressives or papal idolaters. I'd hate to see how he really feels about the Polish rosary "counters". Something about Pelagians no doubt...an idea he got from Msgr.Luigi Giussani, former head of the Modernist C&L (who himself was a disciple of the Modernists Blondel and De Lubac).

      Delete
    5. As a squirrel I'd eat bad acorns rather than disagree with my friend Bear, but here I'm totally in the corner of AWHQ.
      The man in the Chair of Peter is an enemy of Catholics, Christians, and the civilized West. He is doing his utmost to rid the world of them.

      Delete
  9. We did our best. Adopted once, got lucky and had two sons born to us. I would have loved to have a big family, but we're blessed we ended up with 3. Son number 1 is dating a good Catholic girl he met in high school. Son number 2 is only in 8th grade, so I'll give him some time yet...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What a nice story! Good luck! Love isn't measured by the size of your family. (But TFR is. You also qualify for Baby Wars campaign medal, P.H. 2nd Class, plus the Silver Pomegranate.

      A gag in bad taste? No doubt! A reflection of Bear's esteem for TFR heroes (taking nothing from others)? Definitely!

      Delete
  10. Two girls, one boy. Daughter #1 has 6 children, daughter #2 has 4 children. Praying for my only son.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Boys seem to have it harder for some reason, I agree. Maybe one of our ladies would comment on that.

      Delete
  11. I've been gestating for 20 years. Not... with one. Also married my h.s. sweetheart which makes life much easier. Highly recommend.

    First baby at 20, now 40 and working on number 9. Doing our best to keep some Germans in the woodlands.

    We do manage to fit rosaries in there somehow, too. ;)

    Great article; step it up, peeps.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wonderful witness!

      The Bear knows we've got some yet unheard from regulars with impressive witnesses, but he is afraid he could do nothing less than make you Official TFR Poster Mom and put you on a well-funded publicity tour.

      Of course, he realizes you're too busy to take that time out, so he'll keep that stack of first-class airline tickets and five-star hotel bookings for some other purpose.

      P.S. the Bear only wonders why Judging Angels is not on your list of favorite books? If you can find an email address for Bear and email him, he will reward your diligence with an autographed copy. It's the least he can do.

      Delete
    2. Sweet! I would love to read it and, ahem, add it to my faves list. As I'm sure you're aware, women in the family way need all the good books they can get their hands on to make it through with a semblance of sanity...

      DMing you on Woodlands, the Twittverse.

      Delete
    3. Can't DM. Still learning. I shall sniff out your email. 😊

      Delete
    4. Already spammed anyway. st.corbinians.bear@gmail.com

      Delete
  12. Seriously, you are blessed! I wish we had twice as many. I was happiest when they were all under 7 and I could carry two in my arms. I miss the days when they would run up to me, happy to see me, when I got home from work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's totally awesome (and exhausting, natch). A household really should never be without a toddler- the joy they exude is contagious! I'd have to be quite foxed to be as jolly as a toddler is while cracking eggs. πŸ˜†

      Delete
  13. I wrote about this issue at American Thinker 5 and 6 years ago. Time flies.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2011/03/where_have_all_the_children_go.html

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2011/03/where_have_all_the_children_go.html

    I think the numbers are worse than our "experts" advertise. The CDC has the birthrate for American Women ages 15-35 at 55 live births per 1000 females (2016 data). That is absolutely appalling, for it is this demographic that should be having the lion's share of our children. The birthrate should be about double that in a healthy society.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I can't beat Martha, but I can boast five offspring. One daughter will be married in three weeks--hoping to fill multiple cribs soon afterward--, and another daughter is close on the heels of her sister. Both met their beloveds on a Catholic dating website, and all are faithful practicing Catholics. My family plans to do our part to fill the woodland with baby bunnies and raccoons (no deer, though! We're overrun with those here!).

    Shadowfax (Sorry! Can't figure out how to post with my name!)

    ReplyDelete
  15. Seven kids so far here. Four girls, three boys. But, sorry, we are at the southern hemisphere.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I have five grown children, three boys. and two girls. Eight grandchildren. In my Traditional parish, that is a beginner family. We have more than one with 12.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Pretty much agree, but I'm curious about that "never come back from" TFR. How long do we have good records for? Rome of the early AD's had famously low fertility rates, but the Italians are still around, even if most of their rulers were at one point descended from Germans.

    It's certainly not a good place to be, but "no one has ever" is a very strong statement, which I'm not sure is warranted by the evidence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Demographic scientists say." Maye true, maybe not. But a lot goes into a shrinking TFR than a generation just not having kids. Romans were replace by barbarians who admired the Roman civilization so much they became Romans. Bladerunner images rhe ultimate melting pot dtstopia.

      I suspect there is a point we reach pretty quick where a shrinking population just can't turn it around into a growing one because they must still deal with the factors that led to low TFRs to begin with, AND buck or change an entire culture overnight. It is hard to have a larger-than-TRF family for most. The culture sronhly discourages it economically and socially. When a culture devalues children (except for the one child for "personal fulfillment") it is difficult to imagine a change.

      Delete

Moderation is On.

Featured Post

Judging Angels Chapter 1 Read by Author

Quick commercial for free, no-strings-attached gift of a professionally produced audio book of Judging Angels, Chapter 1: Last Things, read...